South Santee River to Edisto Beach, SC Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 731am EDT Sat August 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the Marine section to address the waterspout potential this morning. In addition, the Aviation section was updated for .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) There is the potential for localized excessive rainfall today across the forecast area, especially along the coastal counties this morning. - 2) The typical summertime pattern will continue this weekend into next week. The threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall will exist each day, with heat concerns returning for those along the coast. - 3) Minor coastal flooding possible along the South Carolina coast with evening high tide cycles next week. KEY MESSAGE 1: There is the potential for localized excessive rainfall today across the forecast area, especially along the coastal counties this morning. Surface high pressure will remain centered near Bermuda today. Near term guidance indicates that a inverted trough will rotate on the west side of the high, pushing onshore along the GA/SC coast this morning. Recent runs of the HRRR, HREF, and RRFS indicate that showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in coverage as the trough crosses the Gulf Stream this morning. The convection will push west, reaching onshore across the Savannah River during the pre- dawn hours. Coverage of convection may increase along the SC coast during the daylight morning hours. These showers and thunderstorms should develop within an environment featuring PW values (Precipitable Water values) between 2- 2.3" and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. The combination of deep moisture and adequate instability may lead to areas of heavy rainfall over the coastal counties. HREF probability of 1"/3hr peaks around 80% near Savannah, with broad 30% across the coastal counties for 3"/3hrs. WPC has highlighted the area with a slight risk for excessive rainfall for today. Given the HREF rainfall probabilities, some coastal areas between Liberty to coastal Colleton, may see totals exceed 3". If the rainfall occurs over one of the coastal cities, including Savannah, Beaufort, and Charleston, then Flood Advisories or Flash Flood Warnings could be needed. KEY MESSAGE 2: The typical summertime pattern will continue this weekend into next week. The threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall will exist each day, with heat concerns returning for those along the coast. As the pattern with deep high pressure over the western Atlantic and Eastern Seaboard continues, daily scattered convection chances will remain possible. While most of this activity will be diurnally driven by the afternoon sea-breeze, scattered morning showers and thunderstorms can't be ruled out but will be dependent on how the overnight convection progresses. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) are expected to remain in the 1.75-2.0 inch range, and given slow storm motions locally heavy rainfall will be possible each day into the middle of the week. While 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE will develop by the afternoon hours, the weak flow aloft will result in 0-6 km bulk shear values remaining near 10 knots, suggesting pulse-like storms rather than organized convection. Given the high water loading potential and ~500 J/kg of DCAPE, strong wind gusts would be the primary risk with any stronger thunderstorms. As a weak trough begins to enter our western areas Wednesday, surface flow becomes a bit more westerly which should keep the sea breeze pinned closer to the coast, limiting spatial coverage of showers and thunderstorms. As for temperatures, Sunday and Monday will likely see high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s, with mid 90s looking to become more widespread by Tuesday and continuing into the end of the week as the aforementioned trough slowly shifts eastwards. Inland areas will likely see enough surface mixing to limit dew points to the mid 70s, while those along the coast will likely see dew points linger in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Combined with temperatures in the mid 90s, will likely see some heat index values in the 105-110 range along the coast on Monday, with similar heat index values Tuesday through Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 3: Minor coastal flooding possible along the South Carolina coast with evening high tide cycles next week. Perigean new moon will bring elevated tidal ranges next week. Even modest tidal departures during the evening high tide cycles Monday through Thursday would bring tidal levels approaching or exceeding minor coastal flooding thresholds, though the forecast currently has south-southwesterly winds next week which would keep tidal departures low. Continue to monitor forecast updates through the weekend as the total water level forecast gets refined. Marine This morning: Conditions will once again be favorable for the development of waterspouts across the nearshore and offshore waters of Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia, including the Charleston Harbor, this morning. The waterspout risk will be highest near lines of towering clouds and in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will become less favorable for waterspout development by late this morning as the sea breeze begins to form along the beaches. Today: Surface high pressure will remain centered near Bermuda today. Near term guidance indicates that a inverted trough will rotate on the west side of the high, pushing onshore along the GA/SC coast this morning. This feature should support numerous showers and thunderstorms across the marine zones today. Some storms may produce localized wind gusts in excess of 34 kts this morning. Otherwise, the pattern will support southeast wind around 10 kts and wave heigheights between 3 to 4 ft. Sunday through Wednesday: Atlantic high pressure will be the dominant synoptic feature Sunday into next week. Light to moderate winds prevail on Sunday and Monday, though gusty winds are expected along the land/sea interface each afternoon associated with the sea breeze. Nocturnal jetting looks to remain possible Monday night through Thursday night as a weak surface trough moves eastwards over land, with the persistent strong high pressure offshore and very warm waters. Small Craft Advisories currently look unlikely, but something to monitor. NOAA Charleston SC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories GA...None. SC...None. Marine None. |
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