Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach, FL out 20nm Marine Forecast
| Tonight...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Tstms This Evening. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight. |
| Thu...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Thu Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 5 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Fri...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Nw 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Fri Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Nw 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely Early In The Evening. A Chance Of Tstms Until Early Morning. A Chance Of Showers In The Late Evening And Early Morning. |
| Sat...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And W 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Sun...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Sun Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Mon...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 124am EDT Thu August 6 2026 .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 130pm EDT Wednesday August 5 2026 Increased ESE flow has allowed for scattered showers to move onshore from the Atlantic over the course of the morning. Current mid-level water vapor imagery and recent ACARs soundings indicate that South Florida is still under the influence of deep tropical moisture, with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) once again above the 75th percentile for this time of year. With Atlantic ridging strengthening and extending into Florida, breezier easterly flow will likely allow for quicker storm motions. Despite storm motions being a little bit quicker than the last few days, the main threat for this afternoon will once again be heavy torrential rainfall. Scattered to numerous storms look to develop along sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions this afternoon. However, unlike the last few days, easterly flow will shift the main focus of thunderstorms more towards interior and Southwest Florida. HREF ensemble guidance indicates that the highest probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rainfall (about 40% chance) will be along the Gulf breeze in Collier county. Localized amounts of 2 to 3 inches over urban areas may create isolated flooding impacts along poor drainage and low lying locations. Heavy rain may also create lower visibilities and hazardous driving conditions, particularly over Alligator Alley and Tamiami Trail. The presence of some lingering mid-level dry air and DCAPE values between 700 and 900 J/kg may also hint at an isolated threat of a few strong wind gusts. Frequent lightning will also be common with any storm. Storm activity should wane after sunset, with light easterly winds persisting. Overnight, isolated shower activity looks to once again develop over the more unstable Gulf Stream waters, moving onshore over the eastern metro. Thursday afternoon will be pretty similar to Wednesday, with scattered to numerous storms focusing along interior and Southwest Florida. With moist conditions persisting, the main threats will once again be locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and isolated strong wind gusts. The pressure gradient for Thursday may be a little bit stronger, so breezy easterly winds of 10 to 15 kts may be more common. As result, storm motions may once again be a little bit quicker towards the west. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk will persist for all urban areas through the period. Maximum temperatures will be near average for this time of year, in the lower 90s. Heat indices look to remain just below Heat Advisory criteria for most locations, but still climb up into the 100 to 108 F range. Sensitive individuals without proper cooling and hydration will be at risk of heat illness under these conditions. Long Term (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 444pm EDT Wednesday August 5 2026 There is generally good agreement among long term ensemble guidance that ridging over the western Atlantic will continue to strengthen and shift closer to the Florida Peninsula. With 500mb heigheights climbing to near 594 dam over South Florida, temperatures will remain quite warm, with highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices will also be flirting with Heat Advisory criteria, once again between 105 and 110 F. This will lead to widespread Moderate HeatRisk and isolated Major HeatRisk across South Florida, affecting anyone without proper cooling and hydration. At the surface, the pressure gradient associated with high pressure off the coast of the Carolinas will continue tighten. This will result in continued breezy easterly winds for Friday, with gusts of 15 to 25 kts possible. Guidance is also hinting at a weak inverted trough approaching from the northern Caribbean on Friday, which also looks to bring some increased moisture to South Florida. Ensemble probabilities indicate a high chance (80%) for PWATs (Precipitable Waters) to exceed 2 inches, above the 75th percentile for this time of year. As a result, Probability of Precipitation will be much higher areawide on Friday, with highest chances of 90% along interior and Southwest Florida. There is still some uncertainty among guidance on how different solutions resolve the speed and strength of this disturbance, but the added forcing from this feature should allow for more numerous and stronger storms to develop during the afternoon. The main threats will be heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. For the weekend and beyond, pressure gradients across the Atlantic look to relax, which will lessen the speed of easterlies across the region. Moisture also looks to trend down to near normal, which should result in more typical sea-breeze induced afternoon convection. However, there is a signal that some drier air and Saharan dust may start to work its way into the region by the beginning of next week. Prior to the arrival of the main Saharan Air Layer (SAL), a bit of increased mid level dry air may serve to enhance the threat of strong to damaging wind gusts from afternoon thunderstorms. If conditions get too dry aloft, it is more likely that convection will struggle to develop, decreasing chances for storms. For now, Probability of Precipitation will be on the lower end to begin next week, peaking at around 50% along interior South Florida. Marine Issued at 233am EDT Wednesday August 5 2026 Light to gentle winds across most of the local waters will gradually build out of the east today into Thursday, becoming moderate across most local waters through late week. Occasional fresh breezes are possible over the Atlantic waters during this timeframe. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters each day. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less today, however, seas across the Atlantic waters will gradually increase and could range between 3 to 4 feet heading into Thursday and Friday. Beaches Issued at 444pm EDT Wednesday August 5 2026 Easterly winds will gradually increase through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. As a result, there is a High Risk of Rip Currents starting Thursday morning and continuing through at least Saturday morning along all Atlantic Coast beaches. NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8am EDT this morning through Saturday morning for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. |
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