High Island to Freeport, TX Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. |
| Saturday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. |
| Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. |
| Monday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning. |
| Monday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. |
| Tuesday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. |
| Tuesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 132pm CDT Fri August 7 2026 ...N Marine .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered seabreeze showers and thunderstorms expected on a daily basis through early next week. - There is a chance of more numerous showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and/or Monday. - Seasonably hot with highs in the 90s and heat index values 101-108F each day. Issued at 1146am CDT Fri August 7 2026 The forecast is looking a lot like the month of August, with afternoon high temperatures in the 90s and moderate to high humidity. There is a daily risk of shower/thunderstorm activity for most of the forecast period, though there will be some day to day variation in PoPs. So let's jump right into it by first looking at the large / synoptic scale. Water vapor imagery shows a somewhat amplified pattern over North America, with a ridge over W CONUS, some troughing over the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley, and another ridge over the Atlantic near E CONUS. The SE Texas atmosphere is feeling the influence from the both the ridge to the west and the trough over the Mississippi River Valley. Ridging is dominant enough to prevent widespread convective initiation. But it's also weak enough to not prevent convective initiation. Already, we have some shower/thunderstorm activity firing up near the coast. We'll likely see this activity push inland with the sea breeze boundary. Saturday appears similar, though with Probability of Precipitation extending a little farther inland that what we have today. As we head into the Sunday-Tuesday time frame, the aforementioned trough erodes, as the overall pattern across CONUS becomes more zonal. That being said, the two ridges (W CONUS ridge & Atlantic ridge) remain in place, while a weakness in the ridge lingers across the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley. This will support a steering current regime that takes whatever is in the Gulf towards Texas/Louisiana. Fortunately, we don't have any tropical concerns. But we do have a mid-level trough and associated plume of deep tropical moisture in the eastern Gulf. This pattern will push the moisture plume in our direction, which could increase shower/thunderstorm coverage by Sunday or Monday. However, there is disagreement in the guidance regarding the exact trajectory of the moisture plume. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) deterministic / ensemble guidance suggest the heart of the plume pushes into SE Texas, bringing a pretty good chance of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. The AI version of the ECMWF also appears quite moist. The GFS (Global Forecast System) deterministic/global/AI guidance has been drier, throwing the bulk of the PWAT (Precipitable Water) towards Louisiana. That being said, the most recent GFS guidance is trending a little wetter. So I'm not going to be surprised if the current Probability of Precipitation need increasing if the latest trends continue. Ridging is expected to build over our region as we head into the middle to latter park of next week, suggesting a lower Probability of Precipitation and hotter temperature regime. Thus, you'll notice a rise in the temps and a decrease in the Probability of Precipitation when you look at your location specific forecast. Perhaps the lone wild card is a mid/upper disturbance the guidance is throwing towards Mexico / deep south Texas. If that disturbance could track a little farther north, then we could have higher Probability of Precipitation at the end of next week. For now, daily PoPs beyond Tuesday are very low. Self Marine Issued at 131pm CDT Fri August 7 2026 Generally light to moderate south to southeast winds are expected through the middle of next week. Gulf seas should average 2-4 feet. There will be a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms through early next week. Shower / thunderstorm activity could become more widespread on Monday, though there is a little uncertainty regarding how much the coverage will be. Late next week is generally looking drier and hotter. NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...None. GM...None. |
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