Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line Marine Forecast
| Tonight...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 7 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Friday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East 5 Feet At 8 Seconds. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers Likely. A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Friday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 8 Seconds. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 8 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 Feet. Wave Detail: East 3 Feet At 8 Seconds. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: East 3 Feet At 8 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. |
| Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Monday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. |
| Tuesday...South Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Tuesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southwest After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 235pm EDT Thu August 6 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES,ARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 235pm EDT Thu August 6 2026 - An inverted trough lifting northward across the Florida peninsula Friday into Saturday will lead to higher rain chances, increasing seas, and a greater risk of rip currents. - Conditions trend drier from Sunday onward as high pressure is reestablished across the local waters and drier air aloft moves towards east central Florida. - Hot and humid conditions will persist across east central Florida, with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each afternoon. Issued at 235pm EDT Thu August 6 2026 Through Tonight Scattered showers and storms continue to develop and move westward across the Florida peninsula this afternoon, with coverage anticipated to continue increasing as activity moves farther inland, especially near and west of the I-4 corridor. Limited cloud coverage earlier in the day supported adequate daytime heating prior to the start of convective development, with temperatures remaining on track to reach the upper 80s to low 90s areawide. Analyzed MLCAPE exceeds 2000 J/kg areawide and lifted index values range between -8 to -6. DCAPE remains generally between 600-900 J/kg and 500 mb temperatures range between -9C to -8C across east central Florida. Based on this environment, anticipate storms to produce frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, heavy downpours that could lead to brief, localized flooding in some spots, and even small hail. Strong easterly flow aloft will keep activity moving towards the west and northwest at 10 to 15 mph through this afternoon, with activity gradually diminishing late this afternoon into this evening across the peninsula. While mostly dry conditions are forecast across the peninsula later today, there is a chance for continued isolated to scattered shower and storm development across the local Atlantic waters. Some activity may be able to move onshore given the persistent easterly flow at the surface and aloft, especially from the Cape southward. Muggy conditions persist into the overnight hours with lows remaining in the mid 70s areawide. Friday-Saturday...An inverted trough situated near the Bahamas is forecast to lift northward across the Florida peninsula late this week into the early weekend. Guidance has trended slightly slower with the trough's arrival and departure across the state, though the overall message remains the same: moisture will increase areawide. PWAT's (Precipitable Waters) of 2.1-2.3" are forecast locally, which will in turn translate to higher than normal rain chances (60-80% Friday, 50-70% Saturday). The higher rain chances extend across the whole area on Friday and are favored towards the interior and I-4 corridor on Saturday, due to the inverted trough lifting north and away from the area. Storms cannot be ruled out with activity on either day thanks to modest MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg and greater, cool temperatures aloft ranging from -7C to -6C at 500 mb, and downdraft CAPE of 600-900 J/kg. Overall, storm hazards will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, and with the greater moisture present, heavy downpours. While steering flow looks to be sufficient on Friday, some weakening in the lower levels on Saturday could lead to a slightly greater risk of localized flooding across east central Florida. Overall, rainfall totals of 2-4" will be possible Friday and Saturday, with localized higher amounts not able to be ruled out in some locations that see multiple rounds of showers or slow-moving activity. Activity is anticipated to diminish into the evening and overnight hours, though persistent onshore flow will support continued development across the local Atlantic waters Friday night. Saturday night, drier conditions are anticipated areawide. The greater moisture and in turn greater cloud coverage will work to help limit daytime heating across east central Florida, keeping afternoon temperatures relatively close to normal in the upper 80s to low 90s. The moist air mass will keep relative humidities high, which will still keep peak heat indices of 100-107F possible across the area. Overnight lows generally remain in the mid 70s. At the beaches, increasing choppy surf from the passing inverted trough is anticipated. This means there will likely be an increasing risk for rip currents at all local beaches, so caution is advised. If necessary, a high risk of rip currents may be warranted. Sunday-Wednesday...Mid-level ridging drifts back towards the Florida peninsula early next week, strengthening as it remains overhead. At the surface, the Atlantic high will shift southward, with the ridge axis once again extending towards the Florida peninsula. Lingering moisture in the wake of the inverted trough will lead to 40-60% rain and storm chances on Sunday, with values returning closer to normal into the start of the work week. Drier air aloft looks to move overhead, which will help limit some convective development Monday onward. Any activity that does develop will be diurnally driven, with the sea breeze the primary forcing mechanism for development each afternoon. While exact storm threats can't be pinned down at this point, would anticipate the typical summertime storm hazards all being possible; lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Showers and storms will diminish across the peninsula during the late evening and overnight hours, with mostly dry conditions across east central Florida each night. With the Atlantic high reestablishing itself overhead, temperatures are anticipated to trend near to slightly above normal through the extended period. While too early to give exact values, current guidance does show peak heat indices exceeding 100F areawide with a low chance of exceeding 108F in some spots, especially Monday onward. Will keep a close eye on trends and issue any heat products as necessary. Limited relief from the muggy conditions through the overnight hours, with lows remaining near to slightly above normal. Marine Issued at 235pm EDT Thu August 6 2026 The Atlantic ridge axis drifts north of the waters over the next few days as an inverted trough lifts northward from the Bahamas and across the Florida peninsula and local waters. Increasing onshore flow is anticipated beginning tonight, with cautionary statements tonight into Friday across the the Gulf Stream waters as winds increase to 15 to 20 knots and seas build to 3 to 6 feet areawide. By Saturday the pressure gradient loosens as the trough lifts north, with southerly winds between 5 to 15 knots prevailing from Saturday onward as the Atlantic high begins to settle southward. Seas respond to the lighter winds by subsiding back to 2-4 feet on Saturday and 1-3 feet Sunday onward. Scattered showers and storms are forecast across the local Atlantic waters tonight through Saturday as a result of the increasing moisture from the passing trough. Drier conditions are anticipated Saturday night onward across the waters. NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. AM...None. |
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