Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming S 15 Kt Late. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Wed...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Through The Night. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 941am EDT Sat August 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded to a Slight Risk for severe weather today along/eat of I-95. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Typical Summertime pattern continues with building heat next week. Storm chances today decreasing Sunday and Monday. - 2) A cold front could arrive late next week bringing relief from the heat and humidity into the upcoming weekend. KEY MESSAGE 1... Typical Summertime pattern continues with building heat next week. Storm chances today decreasing Sunday and Monday. It's a typical Summertime pattern as we enter the second weekend and week of August. The forecast is on repeat with patchy morning dense fog giving way to hot and humid conditions with late day afternoon and evening thunderstorms. This morning is already a bit active, with some decaying thunderstorms moving into western portions of the forecast area. These held together quite nicely into the Allegheny Front, but seems to be decaying quickly as they cross it. Would expect outflow from this decaying system, along with the approaching upper-level energy to act as forcing mechanisms later this afternoon. Today, we'll bring another passing shortwave disturbance which will trigger an additional round of afternoon and evening strong thunderstorms. Thunderstorm coverage will be a bit less due to mid level west to west/west-southwest flow yielding some downsloping flow east of the mountains. This is a stark contrast to the southerly flow over the past few days yielding locally higher storm coverage. Much like previous days, convection likely triggers around Noon-2pm along the I-81 corridor before moving into the I-95 corridor by 4-6 PM. Most storms should be out of the area by 8 PM, but could see some secondary convection along existing outflows even up to a couple hours after sunset. Severe threat with these would be less, but could provide some late evening lightning. Storms today will be isolated to scattered with a focus again along and north of I-66/US-50 and east of the Allegheny Mountains. Instability will remain high as a result of the high heat and humidity. Shear values will sit around 30 to 35 kts as the subtropical jet stream begins to strengthen. Thermodynamic profiles also depict this sentiment with skinnier CAPE profiles and inverted-V signatures towards the surface yielding a higher ceiling for damaging wind potential. As such, with higher shear today, decent mid-level lapse rates, and continued high CAPE values, the ceiling for stronger storms is higher today. This means that while we are less confident in coverage of storms today, the ones that do get going should pose a higher risk of becoming more organized. Damaging winds will be the primary threat today, especially if we get any bowing segments to develops. The Storm Prediction Center maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather for most spots, but actually upgraded areas along/east of I-95 to a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5). This is due to pooling of higher dew points near the waters, leading to higher levels of instability and potential for the mos intense storms. Isolated instances of flooding also cannot be ruled out, especially over the urban areas around Baltimore/DC given the repetitive heavy rains the last few days. Would expect to see some storms reach instantaneous rainfall rates in excess of 3"/hr yet again. The focus for the flooding threat is hard to pinpoint, but will be wherever you get colliding boundaries to stall. Storms today should have a bit more movement with stronger downbursts, so thinking the threat is a bit less than yesterday. Lastly, lightning will be a big concern again, with potential for lightning well outside the core of any storm. It is important to move indoors any time you hear thunder in the distance, as lightning can strike several miles ahead of and behind storms. Convection wanes a bit Sunday into Monday given quasi-zonal flow aloft and the strengthening upper-level ridge axis nearby. A few storms may develop over the higher elevations, but coverage will be much less than in recent days. This will be short-lived however, with storm chances increasing once again Tuesday through the end of the week as a series of shortwave disturbances pass through. Outside of he storm chances expect highs in the upper 80s and low 90s with heat indices east of the Blue Ridge up around 100 degrees. The hottest days look to be Monday and Tuesday given the strengthened subtropical ridge over the region. Highs will push into the mid 90s with heat indices closer to 105 degrees east of the Blue Ridge/along the urban corridor. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front could arrive late next week bringing relief from the heat and humidity into the upcoming weekend. Daily storm chances look to continue through at least Friday as a more potent frontal system tracks toward the region. Ahead of that front will be several fast moving shortwave disturbances which will help aid in shower and thunderstorm development during the diurnal period. Storm coverage is a bit uncertain with activity remaining isolated to scattered Tuesday becoming a scattered to numerous Wednesday into late week as the front tries to push through. Speaking of the front, details remain a bit murky on it's passage. Most 00z ensemble/deterministic guidance suggests a frontal passage Thursday afternoon into Saturday. Guidance also depicts an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, a complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms) type setup during the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe. Machine learning guidance is grabbing onto this as well with probabilities running between 15 to 30 percent for severe weather during the midweek timeframe. Storm Prediction Center mentions areas back toward our west on the Day 4 and 5 outlook, so something we'll continue to monitor, especially as the subtropical ridge flattens. There is a bit more uncertainty in regards to severe weather Thursday through Saturday. Of course with any decent frontal passage will have to be monitor given machine probabilities remaining between 5-30 percent for severe weather. This will ultimately be determined by the timing of the front in regards to the peak heating period. Temperatures will cool from the 90s into the 80s late week. Weather does look to improve for the upcoming weekend as Canadian high pressure works into the region. Marine Small Craft Advisories are in effect for portions of the open water due to southerly channeling mainly later this afternoon and evening. Most days will see marginal conditions just below the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) threshold. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected each afternoon and evening through early next week. The greatest coverage will be this afternoon/evening with a brief reprieve Sunday and Monday. Special Marine Warnings may be needed to encompass any any stronger thunderstorms that may form. Damaging wind gusts and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning will be the main threats between 19z-01z/ 3-9pm. Tides / Coastal Flooding Tidal anomalies remain elevated through early next week in response to return southerly flow. Periods of coastal flooding are possible at times of high tide at sensitive locations. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 3pm this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ534-537-543. |
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