Baltimore Harbor & Patapsco River Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Light Winds. Waves Flat. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sun...W Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. |
| Mon...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 309am EDT Fri August 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rinse and repeat..Daily thunderstorm chances continue along with hot and humid conditions through the upcoming weekend ahead. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Patchy morning fog, high humidity, hot temperatures, and daily thunderstorm chances continue through early next week. - 2) A cold front could arrive late next week and into the weekend bringing relief from the heat and humidity. KEY MESSAGE 1... Patchy morning fog, high humidity, hot temperatures, and daily thunderstorm chances continue through early next week. More of the same when it comes to the forecast Friday into the upcoming weekend. Patchy morning fog gives way to high humidity, hot temperatures, and late day thunderstorm chances. This is largely due in part to blocking high pressure offshore and continued waves of upper level energy pivoting through. The nearest front is back toward Chicago with little movement eastward in the coming days due blocking high pressure offshore. For today, expect similar conditions to what we saw Thursday although the severe threat will be higher. A dry and muggy start with some fog giving way to mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. The combination of the heat and humidity with boost surface based CAPE values above 2000 j/kg+ with DCAPE values remaining around or less than 1000 j/kg. 0-6 km shear values will sit between 25-30 kts with mid level lapse rates between 6-7.5 C/km which would allow for higher storm coverage and more progressive movement from west to east across the region. Storms will initiate in the lee of the Alleghenies around 18-20z/2-4pm before advancing eastward toward the metros toward the late afternoon and evening rush hours commute 21-00z/5-8pm as the impulse works through. Storms could fire ahead of the shortwave via the bay/river breeze similar to what we had on Thursday. With all that saId, Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the areas near and along the I-95 (DC/NORTHERN VA burbs northeast into central MD) into a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for severe weather this afternoon and evening. The main threats with storms look to be damaging winds (15% probabilities) and heavy rainfall although isolated large hail cannot be ruled out due to the higher mid-level lapse rates. Similar conditions are expected Saturday as another potent shortwave passes through. Instability will remain high as a result of the high heat and humidity. Shear values will sit around 30 kts perhaps increasing to 35 kts as the subtropical jet stream begins to strengthen. This could yield a more organized severe weather threat with aligns with current learning machine guidance which suggest 15- 30 percent probabilities for damaging wind gusts Saturday afternoon and evening. With that said, guidance continues to focus on areas along and north of I-66/US-50 for both Friday and Saturday. Convection begins to wane a bit Sunday into Monday given quasi-zonal flow aloft. It will be short-lived with storm chances increasing once again Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday as a series of shortwave disturbances passing through. By Wednesday and Thursday, a front tries to drop into the region potentially bringing a change to the current pattern. Outside of the storm chances expect highs in the upper 80s and low 90s with heat indices east of the BLue Ridge up around 100 degrees. The hottest days look to be Sunday through Tuesday given the strengthened subtropical ridge over the region. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front could arrive late next week and into the weekend bringing relief from the heat and humidity. While this is very far out in the forecast period, there is some signal that a more potent frontal system could push through the region late in the week. The details are murky at this stage of the forecast, with timing very uncertain, as well as potential impacts. Deterministic and ensemble guidance is generally between Thursday/Friday right now, with improvement in the weather pattern possible into the upcoming weekend. Any decent frontal passage in the summertime should be watched closely for potential severe weather, so we will keep monitoring this in the coming days to see if that potential is there, and try to narrow down the timeframe a bit more. Marine Small Craft Advisories may be needed for portions of the waters through Saturday due to southerly channeling mainly in the afternoon and evening. Most days will see marginal conditions just below the threshold, especially over the open waters. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected each afternoon and evening through early next week. The greatest coverage will be on Friday and Saturday afternoon/evening. Special Marine Warnings may be needed to encompass any any stronger thunderstorms that may form. Storms will capable of producing frequent lightning and wind gusts over 35 knots. Tides / Coastal Flooding Tidal anomalies climb through the weekend in response to return southerly flow. Periods of coastal flooding are possible at times of high tide at sensitive locations. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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